Jay B.

A Monte Carlo hedging simulator I built cut a client's currency risk 20 to 50 percent. A Google Meridian build I led became a growth agency's measurement product, worth several hundred thousand dollars in its first year. I build decision support systems for companies with messy business data: forecasts with honest uncertainty, marketing mix modeling (MMM), and risk simulations that say what to do next, not just what happened. Most analytics work stops at a dashboard. Mine ends at a decision. The method is the same every time: measure what actually drives the outcome, recommend the action, then optimize it against the constraints you really have. What that has looked like: - An on-demand marketing mix modeling product for a pharma company, projected at +40 percent revenue over five years. - Google Meridian MMM introduced at a growth agency, worth several hundred thousand dollars in first-year revenue. I hold one of the early company-level Meridian certifications. - An FX hedging system built on Monte Carlo simulation that cut currency risk 20 to 50 percent. - Per-customer electricity demand forecasting that became a utility's top-tier revenue service. - A cloud data platform on BigQuery, dbt, and Dagster that stood up a $4M analytics department. Before I model anything I will push back on the question. Half the forecasting requests I see are really measurement problems, and half the "we need AI" requests are a missing data model. Getting that right first is cheaper than getting it wrong in production. Sometimes the honest answer is not to build the model at all, and you will hear that too. Tools: PyMC for Bayesian modeling and causal inference, Google Meridian, BigQuery, Snowflake, dbt, Dagster, and LLM evaluation harnesses when a language model is the right answer. The analysis ships as a working system, not a slide deck. Twenty-seven Upwork contracts since 2009, many of them BigQuery and GCP platform builds that ran two years or longer. Top Rated, 100 percent Job Success. Off Upwork I have run DynaSolve since 2011 and was Director of Product Architecture at a supply-chain optimization company before that. If you want a straight read on whether your data can support the decision you are trying to make, book the 60-minute consultation below. If the scope is already clear, send the brief and I will tell you what I would build and what I would leave out.