Evan O.

Customer lifetime value (CLV/LTV) modeling is my specialty. Using probability models (BG/NBD, Pareto/NBD, Gamma-Gamma), retention curves, and RFM segmentation, I tell you who your most valuable customers are, what they are worth, and how to acquire more of them. Around that core I bring the full marketing-analytics toolkit - marketing mix modeling (MMM), multi-touch attribution, pricing, and forecasting - in Python and R, for CPG, DTC, media, fintech, and B2B clients. Over 30 years I have directed more than $70M in combined consumer-insights and analytics spend - $20M+ client-side (Bacardi Global Brands) and $50M+ agency-side (GfK, Millward Brown/Kantar) - so I read these models the way a CMO does, not just a data scientist. I translate model output into the decision, the deck, and the board-ready story. What I deliver: - Customer lifetime value (CLV/LTV): BG/NBD and Pareto/NBD + Gamma-Gamma probability models, retention curves, cohort and RFM segmentation; forecast customer value and surface your most valuable acquisition cohorts for DTC and subscription brands. - Marketing mix modeling & media ROI: ARIMAX, Bayesian/hierarchical, and regression models with adstock and saturation; in a recent engagement I identified a channel-reallocation opportunity worth roughly a 185% gain in marketing efficiency. Build from scratch, or finalize, validate, deploy, and maintain existing models (Python or R). - Attribution & measurement: reconciling Meta / Google / GA4 platform reporting against actual business outcomes; blended CAC and single-source-of-truth frameworks. - Pricing & forecasting: conjoint / willingness-to-pay studies and supervised-ML pricing models (random forest, gradient boosting) deployed as interactive calculators. - Data engineering & viz: BigQuery warehousing, dashboards (Power BI, Tableau, Looker Studio), and clear recommendations leadership can act on. Credentials: Wharton MBA (Marketing), Brown B.A. in Applied Mathematics. Top Rated on Upwork with 100% Job Success across 8 engagements. Stack: Python, R, SQL, SAS, Azure, AWS, GCP/BigQuery, Power BI, Tableau, GA4, Looker Studio. Fluent in Spanish, working Portuguese - comfortable on global, multi-market engagements. I keep scope tight, communicate in business terms, and hit deadlines.